Alberta Bubble Blog - Latest Comments in Weekend Open Thread

Re: Weekend Open Thread

goldenpipewrench — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:37:55 -0000

http://www.theglobeandmail....
--
The Bank of Canada wants consumers to remember that interest rates won't stay at historic lows forever. In its semi-annual review of the financial system today, the central bank noted that market conditions and the economy in general have improved, but that rising household debt is now the biggest risk.
---

hmmmm. are they going to anything about this or is this just hot air coming out???

Re: Weekend Open Thread

cutpayforpoliticians — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 04:14:59 -0000

they need to cut the 50% raise politicians in Alberta gave themselves last year.

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Carioca Canuck — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 12:33:28 -0000

Mike.......

Hasn't that Dover turd been for sale forever ? We've talked about it here before some months ago IIRC.

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Totalmotorcycle — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 11:16:45 -0000

Deleted

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Totalmotorcycle — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:30:28 -0000

Deleted

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Totalmotorcycle — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:25:06 -0000

Post removed by author

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Totalmotorcycle — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:23:40 -0000

Deleted

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Totalmotorcycle — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:16:08 -0000

jsan33 |This is probably why so many people preach the importance of living within your means and of trying to have some emergency savings to fall back on. Nobody listens"

You are right on the button with that one. I've been preaching that to my friends, family and anyone who would listen. A few have taken the advice and I don't have to worry about them, the vast majority think "I don't need to, I won't have to worry".

Mike

Re: Weekend Open Thread

jsan33 — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 00:38:53 -0000

Our generation has never seen just how awful it could get. The real scary part is at least during the last Great Depression, most people had no debts and were pretty self sufficient meaning they had gardens, and skills to keep themselves clothed and fed. This generation has tons of debt and are almost fully reliant on their paycheck. Without it allot would starve.

This is probably why so many people preach the importance of living within your means and of trying to have some emergency savings to fall back on. Nobody listens, this society is obsessed with living the good life and living paycheck to paycheck with nothing to sustain themselves during hard economic times. Something we have not seen probably since the 70's and even those years were not very hard.

Housing is an excellent example of this. Not that long ago people would never have gone as deep into mortgage debt as they are going today. Especially based almost entirely on rock bottom interest rates which will be going higher in the future. It is reckless and foolish.

Re: Weekend Open Thread

jsan33 — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 00:26:58 -0000

Mick, it all really depends on just how high mortgage rates go. I posted a video the other day of a very recent interview of Meredith Whitney. She has a history of being quite accurate in her predictions. She sees US mortgage rates heading in the not too distant future at a minimum over 10%. You have to know Canada's will be probably be following. I remember hearing Marc Faber last spring suggest that interest rates will skyrocket into the high 20's in the coming years.

Are these predictions going to happen? It's anyone's guess. Most agree that rates are going up, face the facts, they can't really go any lower the question is when? In 6 months, 1 year, 2 years???? who knows. Next year at this time we could be at 10% or sitting at the same level. Flip a coin.

The real danger is if rates start taking off, by the time you decide to lock in, that locked in rate could be enough to put allot of people into foreclosure. I can see people not locking in because their floating mortgage is still somewhat manageable but the locked has gone too high. The problem is, that floating rate could keep climbing and climbing and by that time it would be from a budget point of view too late (expensive) to lock in and all you could do is hang on and pray that the floating rate drops. There is a good chance it doesn't and just keeps climbing and climbing all of the way to bankruptcy.

Re: Weekend Open Thread

carioca canuck — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 23:45:15 -0000

No EI here unfortunately.......but hiring a maid wouldn't be illegal even if I had been getting cheques..

Question: Why are realtards such fuckless gits ?

Re: Weekend Open Thread

goldenpipewrench — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:26:21 -0000

something to think about...

http://www.usnews.com/artic...

with purchasing power going down and unemployment running wild inflation is the least of our problems. Since the US, our biggest market has its economy feeding in upon itself in a chase to the bottom it puts all of us in a bad position. Without manufacturing as a tool to spur growth we are looking at an ugly 2010. Major government intervention and more debt are going to leave a heck of a question mark to where this is going.

Sad ...
http://www.theglobeandmail....

a view at the cuts down south
http://www.startribune.com/...

http://www.latimes.com/news...

make me wonder how far this is going to go before people start lighting torches and grabbing pitchforks. Probably 22% unemployment and 10% rates could start the ball rolling.

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Mick — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:12:31 -0000

Ok mortgage experts, considering that inflation will rear its ugly mug in the next few yrs and mortgage rates will increase, what is the best option for anyone buying now: a variable rate or a fixed rate? We're presently at 2.25 for variable and 5.59 for fixed. Is there any chance that variable rates will outstrip fixed before the mortgage renewal in 5 yrs time?

"In the first six months (of 2009), we saw well over 60 per cent of our applications being for variable-rate mortgages, and in particular in our case five-year variable-rate mortgages," Beaudry said.

"Towards the latter part of the summer, until now, the trend has reversed to where we're seeing about 70 to 80 per cent of our applications going for five-year fixed-rate mortgages."

Turner agreed, saying 60 to 70 per cent of BMO's customers were opting for variable-rate mortgages in the past, but lately "there's been a slight shift to fixed."

Re: Weekend Open Thread

jsan33 — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:52:17 -0000

The last 10 years were years of spending wildly with little attempt at putting away savings or at least emergency savings for most people . It was the decade of debt and excess. Allot of those with good credit but are now struggling are those who took out home equity loans and lived the good life or bought in excess of what they could truly afford. Unfortunately, the inevitable time of paying back that debt has come and allot of them can't swing it, even those who are still gainfully employed. Add to that the increasing numbers of unemployed and the whole mess is beginning to unravel.

It is like a snowball going downhill. More unemployed means less tax and revenue to state and Federal coffers and more government expenditures in the way of Unemployment and Social support programs meaning more debt, less spending, more unemployed meaning even more debt, even less spending even more unemployed etc. etc. It could become a runaway train.

Re: Weekend Open Thread

jsan33 — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:42:07 -0000

Exactly, and that is what would happen. New home buyers are so stupid today in so many ways. They are all trying to get these rock bottom interest rates at sky high house price levels. The problem is EVERYONE, and I mean EVERYONE from bankers to economists to the government say interest rates will be going higher, possibly WAY higher down the road. This would drive the price of houses down which would be great for the new home buyer even though mortgage rates would be much higher. They would than reap the rewards in the future as the mortgage rates eventually start dropping again. Those who bought at todays house price levels or anytime in the last few years would be CRUSHED by the higher future rates.

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Stormy Petrel — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:18:14 -0000

The National Post writes today, referring to a Stats Canada study “Wealth buts 10 more years of healthy living under the belt”. There you have it my dear renters I will be collectively, be able to piss on your unmarked graves.

Money is such a wonderful thing; the only purchase not accessible is Poverty.

Also in the Post today is a comment by Jonathan Chevreau [You just know this guy is limp wristed by calling himself “Jonathan”] where he recommends buying gold as an inflation hedge. In my experience, this guy is always wrong. Take a gamble, short gold. India must have most of the gold over there by now. A price correction is in the offing.

Remember the inflation rule of thumb: divide the annual inflation rate into 72 for an approximation of years to a 50% loss of cash value or another view, a doubling of prices.

Did I tell the Inuvik flying trip this summer?

Of course, Sophia is pissed with me now as per course; however, she was a great nightly comfort to me on this trip.

The Bathurst caribou herd has collapse 85%. The western Eskimos’ may be in a food crisis as in the 1950 when a similar event required massive Canadian aid.
Instead of supporting corrupt ruling classes in Afghanistan, Let us help Canadians.

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Atzi — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 17:53:01 -0000

DO YOU THINK YOU'RE IMMUNE (Stormy, Keith in Calgary & co)?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/...

"(...) The latest evidence was a report Thursday that a rising proportion of fixed-rate home loans made to people with good credit are sinking into foreclosure. That's a shift from last year, when riskier subprime loans drove the housing crisis .(...)"

If Stevie Harper's bunch of fact-twisting acolytes wouldn’t cover up so much of the real situation in this country (I’m talking about R/E, jobless numbers, debt-taking, CHMC socialist, or uber-capitalist protection – meaning that bank will always fall on their feet), we would not have such a cheerio crowd these days, praising the vitality of a otherwise dead corpse.
It is obvious to me that all the efforts went in the direction of “holding the bottom”.
If you went into a bank (like I did) and ask them to present you the list of foreclosures that they own, for to offer to put an offer on one, THEY WON’T DO IT. They told me, they are using Realtors to sell the foreclosures, and at price which won’t be a bargain.
In the meantime, the Rich get Richer, DESPITE THE DOWNTURN!:
http://ca.news.finance.yaho...

Re: Weekend Open Thread

evilsquidly — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 17:24:18 -0000

wow...
Carioca is on EI but hires a maid????
I smell a scammer here...

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Mick — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:21:43 -0000

"Investors also took in data showing that lost jobs, rather than subprime loans made during the housing boom, are now the main reason U.S. homeowners fall behind on their mortgages.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said fixed-rate home loans made to people with good credit accounted for nearly 33 per cent of new foreclosures last quarter. That compares with just 21 per cent a year ago, when high-risk loans made during the housing boom were the main reason for default.

At the same time, the proportion of homeowners with a mortgage who were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure hit a record-high for the ninth straight quarter."

http://money.ca.msn.com/inv...

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Carioca Canuck — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:10:52 -0000

You got a maid too Mike.....?

We hired one 6 months ago.......best thing we ever did.....I just don't know what to do with all this disposable income we have as renters....daayyyuuummmm, I must be richer than I think.....heh.

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Mr Happy — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 10:18:28 -0000

Except for you

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Calgary_fools — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:58:15 -0000

Go fuck yourself stormy.

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Totalmotorcycle — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:45:52 -0000

Deleted

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Totalmotorcycle — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:42:13 -0000

Post removed by author

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Carioca Canuck — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:40:37 -0000

In a report entitled "Worst-case debt scenario", the bank's asset team said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of problems.

Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies as a share of GDP (350pc in the US), whether public or private. It must be reduced by the hard slog of "deleveraging", for years.

"As yet, nobody can say with any certainty whether we have in fact escaped the prospect of a global economic collapse," said the 68-page report, headed by asset chief Daniel Fermon. It is an exploration of the dangers, not a forecast.

Under the French bank's "Bear Case" scenario (the gloomiest of three possible outcomes), the dollar would slide further and global equities would retest the March lows. Property prices would tumble again. Oil would fall back to $50 in 2010.

I have been protecting my nominal assets for the last 24 months and am comfortable with my positions. Seems like France's biggest bank has no problem with this report going public......global economic collapse, how apropos....we already had it IMHO, but Barry Obailout and Jim Flatass in Ottawa robbed money from you guys to keep it from finishing us off "today"........but now that we are worse off, you must remember, tomorrow always comes.

What's that ? You wanna buy some real estate ? I'd rather carry $100K at 15% than $300K at 5%........