DISQUS

Alberta Bubble Blog: Growing economy, more jobs and other lies

  • Mr Happy · 1 month ago
    Your gonna be waiting a long time for that commodity secular bear market. Better hope for a depression for that to happen.
  • nonplused · 1 month ago
    Be careful what you wish for.
  • Atzi · 1 month ago
    Gloria,
    It’s the same with people on this blog: most of them don’t want to admit that times are tough, and that the “irrational exuberance” is no longer around us (as much a some want it back).
    I shared my story, where I bought R/E and lost. I will let you know the ending, too, though I don’t think its going to be pretty. If we were to have to renew our mortgage tomorrow, we would be forced to do something radical (either cough up more money into a depreciating property, or walk away).
    Are there any people on this blog, who would like to share their OWN stories? People that don’t live in denial? Where is that fellow who bought in Bridgeland? I would certainly like to hear from him, to see how his purchase is for him?
    Maybe a Realtor can educate us by sharing his/her own experience, with real facts and not red herrings?
    I would love to hear from anyone.
    Of course it takes guts to admit when you are wrong (which I did when bought an ”investment property” aka specu-condo). Anyone here with guts?
  • ceartea · 1 month ago
    Atzi in the REAL WORLD there are few folks who are as candid as yourself when it comes to this real estate business and life in general. I am thinking you must be in your fourties as that is usually when the rose colored glasses are pretty much wore out.My kids are there now and I am not getting the don't be so negative thing from them nearly as much.(grin)

    We were thinking of downsizing a couple of years ago. Had a realtor park his feet under the table and tell us about this condo buying investment deal. Said he had borrowed on his own house to do so. Being up front I told him I wouldn't bet the farm on that idea. Sometimes wonder how it is working for him now.

    I am hoping that everything works out for you. Good or not so good...you strike me as the kind of fellow who will manage come what may and be the better for the experience.
  • Jim_s · 1 month ago
    Good post Atzi. I doubt you'll get a realtor to come on here and admit anything other than continued shallow sales pitches. Mostly what you'll see is provocation and empty legal threats to save a fragile image.

    On another note, inflationists have a flawed and fatal argument in front of them, simply thinking that Ben dropping dollars on debt ridden institutions constitutes inflation.

    I suggest the following read.

    Credit contraction dwarfs debt monetization, leaving us in a state of net contraction, even though we have just experienced a large rally lasting months, which should have been the most favourable condition for reigniting lending if such a thing were in fact possible. I would argue that it is simply not possible and that deflation is inevitable.

    The scale of the problem has been temporarily concealed by a market rally and the shovelling of tens of trillions of dollars of taxpayer’s money into a giant black hole of credit destruction. This has done nothing to reignite lending, but the temporary (and entirely irrational) resurgence of confidence has restored a measure of liquidity. As that confidence evaporates with the end of the rally, that liquidity will also disappear.


    ->
  • Carioca Canuck · 1 month ago
    In light of the real employment situation in this country, something I should know about as I am unemployed, there will be no return to the earlier job scenario (2003-2007) as we knew it for at least 2 decades, unless the the government goes further into debt thru issuing tax credits for companies to hire people, which carries huge risks.

    The only possible way to keep the housing market "treading water" is to maintain the Government of Canada's SUBPRIME lending program "CMHC"......as well as have the Bank of Canada keep interest rates low. Both of which have very negative, and quite frankly, disasterous long term implications for the economy, unless we return to the 2005-2006 growth levels and stay there for the next 2 decades, which is absolutely impossible.

    A home buyer's tax credit similar to the one used in the US would never get passed here in Canada, for a multitude of reasons, all of the political in nature (it would be an offical acknowledgement of the fact that things are really bad, it goes against conservative principles, it would enrage all the existing home buyers who pulled the trigger in the last 24 months and turn them against the government, it would cost too much, it would trigger an election)......etc.

    The government and the REIC have really run out of options, but to wait for the inevitable.
  • Jim_s · 1 month ago
    Of course, Alberta is different, eh?

    ->
  • Mr Happy · 1 month ago
    Yes
  • Atzi · 1 month ago
    Certeea,
    Bull’s eye.
    Worried about our teen kid too: they don’t teach any “buyer-beware”, or “why you should and how you can save for a better future” classes in school these days.
    The capitalist society has deviated from the moral principles, there is no doubt about that.
    I’ve seen too many cases during my work experience here where for the goal of making money, people/businesses cheat on other people/businesses; sometimes the process is borderline fraudulent. For example, I’ve met Realtors who would tell you it’s a good time to buy, when they were dumping every asset they held in R/E.
    In fact, as I said this in one of my first posts on this blog, in all my years of Canada I have never met a salesperson who would tell me “don’t buy this, it’s crap”(unless they want to sell you the more expensive model) or “you could get it cheaper if you wait a month for the upcoming big sale”, not even whispered in a corner.
    We can teach kids in school basic healthcare guidelines, but we can’t teach them how to be money wise??
    I paid my teen $200 (as a mockery, but also because otherwise they wouldn’t) to watch the +2 hrs of “Zeitgeist Addendum”.. lol, and I’m sure I’ve planted the seed of “questioning things as they are”.
    I’ve said it, and I’ll say it again: from a ”DP”’s perspective, Canada is loosing its core values: from “peace-keeping” became “following Bush’s invasion orders”, from “one of the most beautiful countries on the planet” (which is the reason we moved here), to “we’re not signing the Kyoto Accord”, and the list goes on, and on. For the ones about to say “Go Home” It’s not complaining. It is observation, and an invitation to do better collectively, through individual change.
    Let’s be clear: Realtors didn’t invent themselves; we invented them with our way of being.. complacent, indifferent and greedy.
    Who wants to throw the first stone?
  • nfnnln · 1 month ago
    Atzi:
    I paid my teen $200 (as a mockery, but also because otherwise they wouldn’t) to watch the +2 hrs of “Zeitgeist Addendum”.. lol


    What a sucker. You could have paid a Chinese or Indian teenager $2 dollars to watch it and saved $178. :)
  • das auto · 1 month ago
    Atzi, you need to get your thing together man. What's wrong with you?
    You invested and you lost (so far), however you've never bothered to spend the time to educate self, so you can make an "educated"investment. You keep talking about how realtors should educate you, I mean c'mon man, those guys are sales dudes, their job is to sell stuff not to educate you or other people.
    I have the feeling you have no clue what capitalism is all about. You talk about turning orders down and redirecting clients to competition cause is cheaper. You enter a $1 store and expect the guys there to tell that what they sell is garbage? Shoudn't you know all that already? What place you come from? Lala land?
    Noone needs any guts to admit to anything, this is between you an yourself. You made a bad decision ... learn from it, make sure you don't do it again. You post here like this is an AA meeting or something ... and expect compasion, from whom? A failed "self called banker", turned used car salesman currently unemployed, who claims no interestest in RE markets whatsoever, yet spend most of his/her time on this (and other RE) blog? Don't get me wrong, nothing wrong with this blog, however the idea is to read and digest, self educate, don't just join a "cult like" ideology.
    I'm sure you can do better than that.
  • Atzi · 1 month ago
    Das_auto:
    I invested, I lost, I'm doing "mea culpa", but I'm sharing it with others to let people know they shouldn't follow blindly.
    Ok, so what you’re saying is “everyone’s out to get everyone, I should live with it - and it’s the sucker’s fault if he gets suckered”, right? Fair enough.
    What I’m asking you PERSONALLY, is: do you do anything to correct things around you, or you just slalom through the questionable aspects of the society?
    You say that I should “spend the time to educate self, so you can make an "educated" investment”. You just like to throw empty words..
    I mean, don’t you think that the reading of this blog (and others) and disputing ideas unequivocally shows that this is exactly what I am doing: informing/educating myself in the trends and practices of the R/E in AB.??? Duh!
    Where do you want me to get my information from: Global TV, Calgary Herald, or CTV???
    Besides this blog and others, here are just a few my sources of information: http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodities/ener...
    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/en...
    http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/
    http://www.stockwatch.com/swnet/utilit/utilit_s...
    http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=OIL+WTI
    http://www.housepriceindex.ca/
    etc.
    You also take on CC because he used to sell cars.. that’s pretty low of you. I myself don’t have a great opinion about salesmen, but I have never referred to him because I feel he better than the crowd. He speaks against crooks.
    In fact, I think I would buy a car from him, simply because he has proven that he is not just “empty words” like others. He is consistent, and rather honest in his posts.
    If there would be a contest “Who’s Not Afraid To Reveal His Identity”, between you and him, I would put my money on him.
    Usually, honest people don’t have anything to be afraid of..
    Or, Das_auto why don’t you share with us any of your success stories? Or even failure ones? Or, that would be too much for you? You talk about/criticize others, but do you have the guts to talk about yourself??? I bet not. CC does, I bet. So, spare us of your condescending attitude.
  • realstinkyagent · 1 month ago
    You are a rare kind these days, even though you own real estate and losing money at the same time but you still able to be open minded and not be so bias like some people.

    great post and good for you for speaking you mind,
  • Cairoca Canuck · 1 month ago
    Atzi......

    If schools taught the modern day consumer finance version of a course, similar to one we used to have decades ago that was called "Home Economics" and taught mainly to girls.......our economy would collapse because we'd have intelligent and educated students graduating, who could not only balance chequebooks, but utilize amortization tables and rent versus buy calculators to their benefit.

    The banks would never stand for it.

    As it is..........
  • Dr_Sirius · 1 month ago
    Have any of you seen this? It deals with politics and the economy. It mostly discusses the states, but there are a lot of global considerations as well. I just watched it today...got me thinking a little. Some pretty serious allegations. Any thoughts?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VebOTc-7shU
  • vanman11 · 1 month ago
    Great video. if they finally are willing to uncover the fraud that caused this recession - it'll get worse. If they aren't willing to uncover it, we will be living Japan's lost decade in the US and Canada. http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/04032009/watc...
  • vanman11 · 1 month ago
    I've been reading about the financial world since late 2006/early 2007....and the more I know, the worse it is.

    All the fraud and manipulation that goes on is horrendous.

    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning...
  • realstinkyagent · 1 month ago
    vanman11:

    I have seen all of the related topics on PBS Frontline, Bill Moyer and anything else on the web or none msm TV that I can find, and like you I say to my self all the time "the more I know the worse it is".
    I think I know very little compare to what is really going on, everybody need to know what's going on, too many don't that's why we constantly see these moronic 'economists', real estate press release (I mean news) on the msm always saying things are great, it's never a bad time to buy, sell, trade houses, stocks or anything they can make money from.

    As for the recession being over, these moronic 'economists' and govt only announce that we are in a recession when it's too obvious and a year later, but in July after a month of positive # because of spending Billions on "stimulus" they are very quick to announce that the recession is over.

    Watching CBC Nation the other night they were talking about how the US GDP grow by 3.5% last quarter and they only need another quarter of positive # for the recession to be officially over, I had to laugh, in my mind I was say yes they only need another quarter of giving money to the banks and paying people money to spend so they could be out of the recession, that's the proff they are out of the recession by paying people to spend?
  • jsan33 · 1 month ago
    Thanks for those video links, they look interesting.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------

    Ron Paul once again seems to be one that understands the big picture. That would be the picture that you see when you ignore all of the cheerleading by those in the Financial and investment community who have every reason to try to convince you that that things are looking up........even if it is only based on massive government stimulus.

    Be Prepared for the Worst
  • sweets · 1 month ago
    You are right on Gloria with your post about the crashing O and G industry.

    We've yolked ourselves to a filthy polluting industry and now that it's going bankrupt, we can see the results. When Copenhagen gets passed, you can kisss this province goodbyt

    Just look at all the vacant offices in Calgary. It makes me laugh to think how much in denial everyone is.
  • BearClaw · 1 month ago
    Gloria,

    I understand comparing GDP fall of 2005 sounds more dire than early 2006. Also, the GDP is also adjusted for inflation.

    "Too bad, Canada didn't spend anything on stimulus plan. Oops...they did spend around $50 billion, but that wasn't enough to still get us out of recession."

    Only a fraction of the $50 billion dollars has been spent so far.

    "This is all happening when the commodities have not been routed at all-they have merely come down a bit from their all time high prices."

    I don't think the energy industry has fully adjusted to the recent increase in prices. Part of the contraction in the industry is the result of the dramatic collapse of prices which occurred last year. Oil decreased from $147 to $30 and has only recently climbed back to the high $70s.

    The economic consensus for GDP was +0.1% and the actual reading was -0.1%. TD bank actually forecast this month correctly. If all these economists are idiots or liars why don't you provide us with your forecast before the report is released each month?
  • BAD · 1 month ago
    -
    Seems one can always put optimistic numbers out first and then do the revisions later.

    Canada’s recession has been much worse than originally believed and may last longer than many forecast, government figures indicated Friday.

    Statistics Canada reported the economy unexpectedly shrank 0.1% in August but perhaps even more surprising were sharp downward revisions to figures for earlier in the year.

    After adjustments, the statistics-gathering agency said GDP contracted an annualized 7.2% in the first quarter — worse than the 6.1% previously reported. The drop marks a record dating back to 1961 when Ottawa began collecting such data. For the second quarter, the economy shrank 4.1%, as opposed to a 3.4% reading issued in August.


    V-shaped recovery not going to happen here

    I think those are significant downward revisions (by 18.3% and 20.6% respectively) from the initial figures. Can’t wait to see the revision to the August number.
    Since forecasting is by its nature even more inaccurate, one can forecast almost anything that suits one’s agenda, then correct (or not) later.

    I am starting to lose confidence in the reported numbers, as they seem to be quite erroneous (whether on purpose or not). But if one cannot trust numbers released by Statistics Canada then what numbers can one trust? CREA?
    By the way does anyone know if CREA ever revises their numbers?

    Interesting times we live in, interesting indeed.
    -
  • realstinkyagent · 1 month ago
    it's unbelievable how they love to manipulate these numbers so that people can get excited or not panic, then when nobody is looking or listening, they "revised" the numbers quietly.
    you can't trust anybody anymore these days especially the govt, along with the "economists" from the banks or the real estate interest groups, unless you are BearClaw (radley77 replacement) and a few others here off course, who will believe any upbeat news don't matter how bias these groups are, and adding more upbeat to the already upbeat news too.
  • BAD · 1 month ago
    -
    Here is a little song I wrote
    You might want to sing it note for note
    Don't worry be happy
    In every life we have some trouble
    When you worry you make it double
    Don't worry, be happy......

    One Hit Wonders: Don't Worry, Be Happy

    Seems our leaders grew up on this song:

    As Stephen Harper leads the country toward a historic $55-billion deficit and beyond in the name of economic stimulus, recent polls show ordinary Canadians are starting to fret about leaving their kids drowning in a sea of red ink.

    But not to worry. In the world according to federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, the national deficit will disappear when the Conservatives stop printing those big cardboard cheques for roads, sewers and new door knobs.


    Canada's red ink won't vanish

    Let us all sing then...

    There is this little song I wrote
    I hope you learn it note for note
    Like good little children
    Don't worry, be happy

    ...

    -
  • BAD · 1 month ago
    -
    Meanwhile let's check the results of the US government bailouts...

    CIT's move will wipe out current holders of its common and preferred stock, likely meaning the U.S. government will lose the $2.3 billion it sunk into CIT last year to prop up the ailing company. The government could have lost billions more, however, had it not declined to hand over more aid to the company earlier this year.

    The Chapter 11 filing is one of the biggest in U.S. corporate history. CIT's bankruptcy filing shows $71 billion in finance and leasing assets against total debt of $64.9 billion. Its collapse is the latest in a string of huge cases driven by the financial crisis over the past two years, as bailed out industry heavyweights like General Motors and Chrysler both entered bankruptcy court.


    CIT files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection

    So, what was the point of the bailouts exactly?
    -
  • Mr Happy · 1 month ago
    US Government has made $4 billion off of repaid TARP money so far this year. So even if they do end up losing $2.3 billion, they are still ahead $1.7 billion. Pretty good return considering what short term treasury bonds are yielding. That's just one of the many reasons for the bailouts.
  • Mr Happy · 1 month ago
    Sorry that should read:

    Pretty good return considering what short term treasury bills are yielding.
  • BAD · 1 month ago
    -
    Oh, I thought that the automakers bailout was supposed to save them from bankruptcy and save the jobs, no? Also I thought that the bank bailouts were there to prevent them from collapsing, no? I suppose if the objective was to make money then the best way would've been to "short" the bailed out institutions. no?

    By the way, where did you get the $4 billion number?
    These people figure that number at about $8.4 billion:

    The TARP-o-Meter Earns $8 Billion in Returns

    But that's before sinking another $8.2 billion into automakers and other companies, leaving net of $200 million. That's before the latest loss of $2.3 billion on CIT. In any case the question is will they make money in the end?

    One of the things they teach in Successful Investing 101 is to cut your losses short and let your winnings run. But when it comes to the Troubled Assets Relief Program, the government is stuck doing the opposite. Its gains are being cut short, because its most profitable investments are being closed out, yet its losses will continue running.

    (...)

    So let's be happy with what we've gotten for our warrants, taxpayers. But let's not kid ourselves. TARP was designed to bail out the financial system, not to make money. If we break even, we'll be doing well.


    TARP bailout money we can kiss goodbye

    But that's US problem so let us sing...

    Ain't got no cash, ain't got no style
    Ain't got not girl to make you smile
    But don't worry be happy
    Cause when you worry
    Your face will frown
    And that will bring everybody down
    So don't worry, be happy (now).....

    -
  • Mr Happy · 1 month ago
    BAD

    Politics aside, the only reason the TARP was put in place was to stabilze the financial system and it worked. I also know it wasn't put in place to make money. But currently it is. Who knows in the end it may end up making a profit, but probably not. Now TARP II is coming out for the regional banks, again to stabilze that part of the financial system.
  • Mr Happy · 1 month ago
    So don't worry, Be Happy says Mr Happy, who's always Happy. There's good in everything, no matter how BAD you think it is.
  • jsan33 · 1 month ago
    Mr Happy, trying to find roses in a field of poison IVY?

    Wilbur Ross Sees ‘Huge’ Commercial Real Estate Crash
  • worldclass · 1 month ago
    Wow, if you read all the posts from beginning to end here it seems to be a mutual stroking between perma-bears. Seriously, "Das Auto's" post is probably the best posting here.

    Of course all this talk about the media giving upbeat news, the fraud perpetrated on the world, etc etc all mean nothing if you're just going to sit there and complain about it and yell "hey, that's not fair!! I want it to be fair and prices SHOULD be lower because that's what makes sense!!!". That's pretty much what I am reading lately on this blog. Stop complaining and do something about it.

    Who cares if things "make sense" or not. Do you think what the central bankers are doing make sense? Do you think they care about "fairness"? Do they care about all the fraud that is going on? Do they care about educating Atzi and want to throw salesmen into jail for doing their job? We are not a communist country... you should know that sales people are paid to sell a product to you, no matter how shiny their suit looks.

    All this talk is irrelevant. While you were all stroking each others egos and complaining about the all the unfairness going on, single family home prices (the ones where you ACTUALLY own the land underneath) are up from last year and up from last month in Calgary. There's no denying that the best time to buy was about Feb-May 2009 so far. Oh wait... as I remember that's when I said to look at buying a home if your family really needed one and you could afford it with a conventional mortgage. But I was boo'd by all the bears who failed to change their views in light of the new reality upon us. Since then, Bearclaw was the only one who saw what was happening, assessed his own family's situation, and decided to take the plunge. For the record, those who have been following my posts since the days of Calgary Contrarian blog KNOW that I was a bear during the bubble up until April 2009 when I changed my views due to the actions of the world's central bankers.

    Other permabears missed the market again (except Carioca who loves renting no matter what) and also kept fence-sitters from coming into the market. Real families who NEEDED a home, listened to the likes of Squidly and Carioca and have been on the loser-end while paying rent to their landlords for half a year and watching prices creep up again. Double-loss.

    Jim_S and his deflationary views have so far been right AND wrong. Depends on what numbers you look at. For me, I think that we've not had any deflation at all... because the metric I use is straight gold bullion cost. Today your paper money buys less gold than it did 6 months ago, DESPITE the rise in the Loonie. Today your paper money buys less chicken and beef from the local grocery store as well. That's main-street real world economics for you there. I want a deflationist to show me that my money goes further now for things I need (food, shelter, etc) vs. just telling me the latest "numbers" that lump things like cheap Chinese knick-knacks into the calculation.
  • realstinkyagent · 1 month ago
    Mr.WorlclASS

    you seem really arrogant, you act like a know it all, do you read or take news stories into account anymore? why do you bother read and posting on here if you just ignore everything, all you seem to talk or care about is GOLD, GOLD, GOLD!!! and anybody who don't have GOLD or like GOLD are fools.

    There's no point in arguing with you because I can never win, GOLD always wins, is there a GOLD blog somewhere that you can let all this GOLD excitement out?
  • worldclass · 1 month ago
    "you seem really arrogant, you act like a know it all, do you read or take news stories into account anymore?"

    Yes I read news stories. I take every one of them into account, unlike those who like to discredit any news story that is remotely positive for the economy. Do you take into account the reality that real estate prices have risen, inventory has fallen? I am sure many of those fence-sitters take this into account and will never read this blog again.

    The Calgary Contrarian was a very good site, good posts, good blog replies. All respectful and not spiteful. This blog is turning into a Garth Turner blog for Alberta...only now it's worse. Any news slightly positive for anything (not even real estate) is now deemed "false". Any news that has something negative for the economy is never questioned, save for some infrequent posters on here. I was hoping the extremists would move to that squidly blog.

    I've been called a realtor so many times on here it's scary. It could not be further from the truth. I am not even in any industry that has to do with mortgages, financials, real estate, etc etc.

    Why do I talk about gold? How about I talk about other commodities.... the point is something TANGIBLE. Gold is merely a good metric vs. paper money. So is oil, or copper, or wheat, etc etc. Would you like me to mention all those other commodities as well in every post to illustrate things better? I also mentioned food in my post, did you read that?

    Savers...myself included...have been screwed as our money is worth less and less...and nobody wants to talk about that. Nobody also wants to admit that land prices have gone up in Calgary, and along with them, real estate.

    Keep the circle-jerk going and hold onto your paper money whilst paying rent to your landlords. Don't invest in anything tangible (commodities, land, precious metals) and shove every penny you have into your lifestyle or that low interest "savings account". Smile and let the world pass you by as you complain how unfair prices of everything are. This is my last post on this failed forum.
  • Mike_o_rama · 1 month ago
    So, what blog will you be posting on now?
  • kirm · 1 month ago
    I, like you, have invested in gold and silver but jeez man open your eyes to what's happening in the world. Who do you think is going to pay for all that printed money? Don't you think there's going to be hell to pay for our government's poor decisions eventually?

    Also ask yourself this; is housing affordable for families in Calgary...or Edmonton? In the end that's all it comes down to, really, AFFORDABILITY. As countless posters have shown on here, it isn't. CC likes renting so much because he SAVES so much. Right now I'm paying about $800 for a nice, simple one bedroom apartment. What would it take to get me into a house or condo? To give me the "pride of ownership"? 1500, 2000 dollars/month?!?! That's insane! Worldclass, you're a smart guy with some really interesting points of view and I hope you never stop posting but the comments you see in this blog reflect reality much more than our dumb government or stupid media.
  • Mike_o_rama · 1 month ago
    Q: Who can afford to buy gold when you have record layoffs and job cuts? A jobless recovery brings no money. In fact, it's a great arguement for deflation.
  • Carioca Canuck · 1 month ago
    Worldclass.......

    The wife and I own property.........just not in Canada.

    And I don't love renting "no matter what" versus home ownership, I love money, and wasting money by purchasing a home here in Calgary, or for that matter, pretty much anywhere in Alberta in the last 36 months is counterproductive to my love of money.

    Seems like you are becoming frustrated by the sense that people are not drinking the Kool-Aid you and others keep pooring. If you weren't vested in RE it wouldn't matter now, would it ? But those of us who are not vested in Alberta RE really don't care, because we have the ability to see rationally.

    Let's talk about TARP......take all the TRAP funds back and guess what happens. Just guess.....I dare you.....

    The US gubmint blew trillions trying to save things that had no right to be saved, things that cannot survive on their own, even with the TARP money it seems.

    The fraud and criminal actions of many of those involved in the REIC are tenfold the minor infractins committed by Bernie Madoff , et al. The REiC is the most unregulated industry of all........with teh greatest scoipe and reach to wreak havoc upon the most ordinary of citizens. Much more dangerous than Madoff, and the crooks on Wall Street.
  • Mike_o_rama · 1 month ago
    Excellent points CC.
  • kirm · 1 month ago
    At the risk of making this sound like a "circle jerk", as Worldclass put it, yes your comment was right on the money CC. The real shame of it is that now, in the States, housing has become affordable again and they're so screwed financially it doesn't seem to matter.
  • realstinkyagent · 1 month ago
    worldclass said:
    "This is my last post on this failed forum."

    I hope you would reconsider this, I actually like having you, and a few others, like BearClaw, posting on here.
    You are one of the reasons why I want to learn, understand, and post on this blog---without your arrogance, your know-it-all attitude, your belittling of people who just simply want an affordable house for their kids, your knocking down of the guy who wants to rent because real estate is extremely over-priced or your trashing of the guy that lost money on an investment and also his job, all that gives me the motivation to post here, and warn people about the mess we are in because the real estate agents, the banks, the gov't and especially you, are not going to tell people it's a bad idea to buy an over-priced shack with 5/35 amortization in Alberta.

    Most people on here just want affordable housing for themselves and their families, whether it's buying or renting.
    I'm sure gold, commodities, or stocks are all good investments, I have some myself, but in the end most people here just want affordable housing, so take your belittling of people somewhere else, however if you do decide to change your mind and come back, I will be glad that you did and I will be waiting for you.

    As for me, I obviously think real estate in Alberta is way over-priced but I'm happy either way if the price goes down or stays exactly like this, because my investments (from not buying) covers my rent and much more.
  • jsan33 · 1 month ago
    I'm with you. As a former house owner, I have no problem with renting. Owning a house was expensive and I am not talking about the mortgage. My apartment is really quiet, my rent is cheap, all of my utilities are free, I pay no property tax and do not have to paint decks and fences, cut grass and chase weeds and do any expensive repairs all of which I was always doing in my last house.

    I have said this before and I will say it again, it seems like the only people who dream about living in their own house and fantasize that it is the greatest thing in the world are those who have never owned. The novelty wears off and than it just becomes "hum drum", it's truly exciting and new for the first few months and than that's it, it becomes very routine and mundane. There are as many issues with noisy, nosy neighbors, noisy dogs, etc, etc, in a house as there are in apartments. The only difference is in an apartment, you can pack up and leave, In a house, forget it!!
  • Mike_o_rama · 1 month ago
    I've owned 2 homes and rented many more. Been renting now in the UK for over a year now and it's like a "breath of fresh air", you don't have to constantly preform house maintenance, worry about bills, cutting the grass, painting, hail damage, property taxes, "bad" neighbours, selling in the future or house prices. We even have a bi-monthly maid and gardener included. We can even move without worry of selling first.

    That said, I do enjoy owning a house, you can plant a tree or flowers, paint, build a garage or extension or renovate to your own tastes. But those options cost you money.

    If the RE market doesn't go up, there are very few ways to make money owning other than renting a room out (thus reducing the reason you bought in the first place, ie, your "own" place).

    Mike





  • sweets · 1 month ago
    You know what makes ppl like Worldclass and bearclaw annoying is because they think they are right when they are actually wrong and just believing wrong numbers. I can never convince some ppl that the stats are all manipulated or need to be corrected so I just gave up on some blogs and came here. At least I can find good advice about Calgary somewhere

    Also just because prices are up, doesn't mean there wont be a crash this week or next week- remember last year this time. Garth Turner said buyers are the greatest fools, he's right

    Read the roubini article today in G and M - oil is headed for a crash........ (boom)

    Last week I was laughing when the stocks tanked. Cash is king
  • jsan33 · 1 month ago
    The Realtors must be shaking in their boots over this one. What a shame, it couldn't happen to a nicer industry. The Pumpers of the housing market might be in for some steep competition to their grossly overpriced fees.

    ""The outcome of this would be that discount brokerages would have access to MLS, which would have a very, very significant impact on how real estate transactions are conducted in Canada," said Subrata Bhattacharjee, a competition lawyer at Heenan Blaikie."

    Competition Bureau seeks real estate shake-up
  • Mike_o_rama · 1 month ago
    That is GREAT news! Finally, justice for the sellers and buyers has been done.

    CREA's era of RE monopoly has ended!

    Victory to the people!

    Mike
  • realstinkyagent · 1 month ago
    thanks for the informative link jsan33.
    good new for home sellers and buyers, more competition is always good news, especially for an industry that do little work but charge ridiculously high fees.
  • Mike_o_rama · 1 month ago
    What might be coming to North America...

    UK credit card: Apply today and get a typical 39.9% APR.
    http://www.vanquis.co.uk

    40% PER YEAR on your debt!

    Mike
  • realstinkyagent · 1 month ago
    Mike_o_rama and jsan33:

    I agree with everything you guys are saying, I do miss the garden, the nice back yard for the kids to run around and the privacy, but I can't begin to tell how great it feels not to worry about maintenance, snow shoveling, lawn mowing, extra utilities and including everything you guys mention.
    This all adds up to about $600 a month and lots of time spent, my rent is only a couple hundred more.

    However I'm willing to sacrifice all that and be a little poorer to own a house again if and when prices are reasonable, but until then I'm enjoying life with less stress and debt free, and I'm in NO HURRY to buy again.
  • BAD · 1 month ago
    -
    Salt!... Salt!... Large grain salt!...

    We know it's an unusual hobby, but we can't help ourselves -- it always brightens our day when another forecast from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. drops into our mailbox. What do we find so beguiling? Must be the gentle mix of fact and whimsy. No matter what the situation, a CMHC forecast is always soothing, always positive, always upbeat about real estate.

    CMHC forecasts best taken with a large grain of salt
    -
  • Mick · 1 month ago
    EI benefits for the self-employed starting next yr and collecting effective Jan. 1, 2011. I can remember the self-employed being a big reason for the changes in the unemployment figures over the summer. How much is this going to cost taxpayers? What stops housewives across this nation from starting a business and earning the minimum of $6000 and paying some EI premiums in order to collect when the economy tanks?
  • Mike_o_rama · 1 month ago
    Mick, how interesting. UI for self-employed... Makes sense, I imagine they will base benefits based on their tax return income. If more people pay into UI, I wonder then if the premiums will go down? (doubt it).

    Also I wonder then if self-employed pay CPP and can collect that too?

    Mike
  • Carioca Canuck · 1 month ago
    I was self employed for the last 5 years.........owned my own company and paid the maximum EI ands CPP premium every year at tax time, but was not allowed to collect EI.

    So, I guess I welcome allowing those who pay the ability to collect. It is only fair........and was one of the things that always pissed me off every April when I signed the cheque.
  • Gus · 1 month ago
    C.C. you can apply to have your EI refunded if you paid premiums when you were not eligible to collect. I am self employed and have never paid EI for myself or other family members working in our business.
  • Mr Happy · 1 month ago
    I've also own have owned my own incorporated company for 20+ years and have never paid EI. Years ago I was not even paying CPP payments, that's when you could file a T4A, they changed the rules so you can only file a T4 now, so now I have to pay, damn.
  • Carioca Canuck · 1 month ago
    Thanks Gus.....

    But I know what you are talking about and I didn't qualify. You had to have a certain number of family members on the payroll, as well as there was some sort of dollar amount threshold you had to meet in order to do it.
  • Carioca Canuck · 1 month ago
    What the hell is going on with this website......

    One minute you can post, the next you can't and it says your comment has to be moderated ???
  • Mike_o_rama · 1 month ago
    Wow, look at this, just came up today:

    http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?prop...

    That's a $600k purchase 15 months ago plus new kitchen, flooring, bath and paint, now for sale at $339,900.

    Who said RE always went up? And considering Calgary CREB is touting "increasing prices"...right! That's 240k lost there.

    I knew the 93 year old who sold that house as they were 2 doors down from my old house.

    Mike
  • Questions · 1 month ago
    The current median price for single family homes is $410,000 in Calgary. 15 months ago in July 2008 the median price for a single family home was $408,500.

    The market median prices have risen over the time period you specified.
  • Mike_o_rama · 1 month ago
    So you see the point I was making, but here is the link. "CREA/MLS Official prices" went up, but in real life, some are down over 50%.

    Who do you believe? House Salesmen(R) or a Business based on commission (CREA) or the buyers and sellers.

    Mike
  • BearClaw · 1 month ago
    Mike Fotiou posts and reviews the median numbers as well. Do you think he is hiding something?

    Do you think the 1000s of realtors in Calgary are all hiding the real numbers?

    Get a grip. The median statistic from CREB is solid.
  • Mr Happy · 1 month ago
    A answer from DaBull on Turners blog to your same post.

    If you look at the titles, from the Spin II system, they actually bought 2 lots with houses for a total of $632K in Dec 2007. They subdivided into 3 lots. Sold the one to the left for $340K, are currently selling the one to right for $339K and either keeping or selling the new empty lot they created in the middle. Made their money back and either have a lot which didn’t cost them anything or are going to sell it for a tidy profit. Not everyone is a stupid as you think they are.
  • Mike_o_rama · 1 month ago
    Thanks I did see and reply to him there. Here is what I put:

    Unfortunately, the homes were never sold on the MLS or reported sold on the MLS*, they were private sales in 2008. Also they could have not have been sold in 2007 because:

    A. I know ALL the owners of each of those 3 homes. (One lived there since 1948, the other 1965 and the one of the left 2007)
    B. The home on the left was purchased for $514 in 2007, not $340k
    C. I know the developer and what they paid for them all.

    Mike

    *I know as a Realtor(R) it's hard to imagine everything isn't sold on the MLS, but some deals are private and FSBO too.







  • Mr Happy · 1 month ago
    Now I know your full of shit. First Spin II has nothing to do with MLS or Realtor(r). It's run by the Alberta Government. The Spin II doen't lie, it's the guaranteed to be accurate and correct by the Alberta Govermnent. And anyway even if it was a private sale it would still have to be registered at land titles and that's the Spin II system is, you idiot. So lets say it wasn't registered. Then who every you say bought that for $514K doesn't own anything. If they tried to sell they couldn't because they wouldn't be the registered owner.
  • Mike_o_rama · 1 month ago
    Are you a troll? Are you StinkyPlumber too?

    Sorry, I can only tell you what I know, and what I know it true, thus you must be full of tubas.

    The land was sold for that in 2001 for $210k (how do we know that? Because it was the previous owner of our house who told us so). Good try buddy. Next time, pick better lies agaist someone who can't defend themselves so easily.

    All I have to say to you is,

    Thank you, come again.

    Mike
  • StinkyPlumber · 1 month ago
    Oh, the neighbour told me! Now that's guaranteed to be accurate.
  • BearClaw · 1 month ago
    Mr Happy,

    The link to the listing doesn't work anymore. What is the address?

    Is any adjacent listing from the original purchase still on the MLS?
  • Mr Happy · 1 month ago
    Here is the title # of the middle lot. 071603072
  • Mr Happy · 1 month ago
    8 houses west of this house on 17 st SW. If it has been sold it will show up on Spin in the next month with the sale price.

    http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?prop...
  • BearClaw · 1 month ago
    Thanks Neil!

    I'm seeing the general area, If you go to google street view you will see two newer houses with "property guys" signs up. Right to the east of those there is an older light orange house with the parking pad in the front. Is that it?

    Do you have access to the Spin system?
  • Mr Happy · 1 month ago
    yes and yes. Everyone has access if you have a credit card.
  • Purple Hippo · 1 month ago
    Anyone with $5 can access anybody's title on the Spin system.

    https://alta.registries.gov.ab.ca/spinii/logon....
  • StinkyPlumber · 1 month ago
    "That's a $600k purchase 15 months ago plus new kitchen, flooring, bath and paint, now for sale at $339,900."

    And it's all clear profit. Mike, you try to obfuscate and confuse, but we all see how you cherry pick and hide the facts that you are scared of.
  • Mike_o_rama · 1 month ago
    What a ID-10T error you are.
  • Mr Happy · 1 month ago
    Just to add to the post below. If those people did pay $514K, first thier idiots because the value of propery on last sale was $340K. Second if they are trying to artifically inflate values that's fraud, so report them. Again SPIN II is the Alberta Land titles system. The Spin II system also tracks current property sale prices so Municipal Government have property market values for tax purposes and all that information is available to the public, but at a price.
  • Mike_o_rama · 1 month ago
    So, report them. What are you waiting for? An invite?
  • Mr Happy · 1 month ago
    Thought about your statement that the one to the left sold for $512. Well it may have, sort of, but not just yet. The developer/owner and buyer would have to set up a agreement for sale. This way the propery doesn't acutally change hands and the developer/owner remains registered owner of the property. This is a typical rent/lease to own senerio. The buyer signs an agreement that some time in the future they will buy the property for a set price, which in this case is $512K. The buyer is now responisble for all cost associated with the property, such as maintanence, utiltiies, taxes, etc, etc. The buyer puts down a deposit, usually around $10-20K. If the developer has any brains, (which I think these ones do), they most likely set it up as a premium rental/lease rate. The premium is to pay for a down payment over time until they have enough saved to get a conventional mortgage. The monthly rent/lease payment will be set high enough to pay mortgage costs on the 512K. This is a gold mine for the developer/owner, they not only have someone paying all costs but they make a handsome profit on the differential between the $512 and whatever the real mortgage is, if there is any at all. Plus I would bet the developer/owner is making another tidy profit of the differential between the mortgage rate they have, if any, and the mortgage rate they are charging the future buyer.

    Oh ya. I look on Google Maps at the house you posted, it is the only orginal house left from the development. The other 2 houses are new. So the developer paid $632K for 2 lots with old house. Knocked one down, built 2 new ones, sold one new for $512, selling the old one for $339k and has one new one left. They are most likely living in their new FREE!!!!! home until the capital gains tax period expires and then will sell for another tidy profit. mmmm. ... Who would have though people could actually make money in a down realestate market. I guess there must a lot smarter people out there than you.
  • StinkyPlumber · 1 month ago
    Mike-O-Rama, you are a snake.
  • Mike_o_rama · 1 month ago
    StinkyPlumber, you are a purple hippopotamus with yellow spots.
  • justpassinby · 1 month ago
    It is sad to see "worldclass" quit his/her postings here. But what is sadder is how there has been zero acknowledgement that he's been right on a few occasions. And if you take gold into account (as he seemed to be "gold crazy") then he/she has been right on with that too.

    Mike...interesting posting! Can't believe that price, but I wonder if it is due to the future LRT on 17th ave. Nobody likes to live right by a train that goes by every 15 mins...not to mention the construction debacle that will ensue during the building phase.
  • Mike_o_rama · 1 month ago
    Yes, that was quite a loss there for them, I feel bad for anyone making a poor RE investment mistake. I posted it to show that is does indeed happen out there and RE doesn't always go up in value. They were very smart investors too.

    The 17th ave LRT cuts in on 17th ave at 33rd Street SW, this is about 21st SW, so many blocks away. Although it does come down Bow trail to get to 17th ave, cutting close to Scarboro.

    I noticed it says "Schedule A" on the listing, I think that's a court sale?

    Mike
  • realstinkyagent · 1 month ago
    Great interview on Bill Moyer.
    Renowned economist James K. Galbraith, onetime executive director of Congress' Joint Economic Committee, teaches economics at the University of Texas, where he holds the Lloyd M. Bentsen Chair at the LBJ School of Public Affairs.

    He talks about the people who could of prevent the financial collapse, and the corruptions, now the govt just want more of the same, and they are not doing anything to prevent another meltdown.


    http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/10302009/watc...
  • BAD · 1 month ago
    -
    Seems the statistical tools used to measure various numbers are inadequate in today's world of globalization. Consequently they distort the results.

    Let me get this straight. We have a collapse of the housing and construction sector, massive layoffs in almost every part of the economy, a sharp downturn in consumer spending, and bank failures on an astonishing scale—-and the numbers show an increase in productivity?

    It defies common sense.


    Economics Unbound: Financial Crisis Creates Productivity Bonanza? No.

    We are all in the dark...


    -"There are none so blind as those that will not see."-

    -
  • Das Auto · 1 month ago
    It only defies the common sense of an individual who has no clue what productivity is and/or how is measured. But then, I guess he gets paid by the word not by the content, so why bother.
  • Carioca Canuck · 1 month ago
    In today's Herald drilling companies are reporting that 2010 activity will be down by 50% of this year.....which was dismal.

    Keep buying Alberta RE people.......
  • BAD · 1 month ago
    -
    More news on productivity:

    The problem is how the productivity growth was achieved. It wasn't because of clever efficiency measures or the purchase of wonderful tools that help people get their jobs done faster. Such improvements take years, not mere months. Rather, it was because companies cut jobs and work hours drastically.

    The Dark Side of the Productivity Surge

    We are all in the dark...


    -"There are none so blind as those that will not see."-

    -
  • Mick · 1 month ago
    This is an interesting article dealing with what may be a deliberate fudging of the unemployment statistics.

    "Although it gets little attention, Statistics Canada puts out a second barometer of employment called the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours, which counts jobs from the industry perspective, rather than the better known survey of households.

    The industry survey suffers from the disadvantage of coming out a month later than the household poll, hence is regarded as stale news. It also does not measure the variable self-employment category.

    But that may be what makes it a better indicator of the economy during the current volatile and uncertain period of halting recovery, says Holt."

    "He points out the error factor in the household survey is plus or minus about 30,000 jobs, a large number when most months gains or losses are measured in the low tens of thousands."

    http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/business...
  • Mick · 1 month ago
    This statement by a blogger on another site is one of the most profound statements on the current crisis:

    "bootcut

    Nov 6, 2009 5:46 AM GMT
    Once a employer finds out he can still maintain production capacity by working the remaining employees twice as hard, where is the incentive for him to hire? When one burns out you just replace them with another from the large pool of unemployed. Just like a light bulb."

    To go further on this statement where is the evidence that employment will increase in this scenario where companies are getting those left in the workforce to slave harder and faster than before when we have lost and continue to lose our competitive and exporting edge to China and India. We continue to manufacture and export less and import more.

    The harsh reality is that the economy is probably where it really is supposed to be considering our debt levels, productivity, output, etc. We were probably supposed to be at this level and were only capable of sustaining at this level if not for our recklessness, greed and appetite for debt. We are probably now in an economic phase where our economy is not operating on and reflecting speculative growth but is grounded in reality given our existing economic constructs. Thus, we may be looking at this current economic cycle for a long time given that the employment picture will remain stagnant for the forseeable future.