Alberta Bubble Blog - Latest Comments in Alberta sans Natural Gas

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Carioca Canuck — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 13:43:14 -0000

The response to attempts (intentional or otherwise) to debase FIAT currencies, is always, to raise interest rates.

Only time will tell if any deliberate attempts unfold. Unintentional devaluation, such as caused by the current US financial collapse and our following along, will result in higher rates........which will drive gold way back down again.

IMHO gold is up, simply because of 1-a marginal level of panic mainly driven by those with vested interests (never seen so many "buy gold now" commercials on TV before) and 2-there have always been gold bugs since 1000 BC.

There is no demand for oil, but it is also up from it's mid $30's low due to simple speculation, nothing more.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

worldclass — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 12:04:08 -0000

"That was largely what happened in 1980, when panic drove gold prices over 800$, well beyond 2000$ at today's prices. That same year the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates to 20%; after that the deepest world recession since WWII unfolded."

http://europe.theoildrum.co...

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

worldclass — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 11:51:53 -0000

Also I'd like to mention that when gold spiked in the 80's, that was met with immediate high interest rates, and gold thus FELL thereafter.

I do not see rates being risen like crazy again this time around to protect the value of paper money. Volcker, who was an inflation hawk and largely responsible for the SOUND monetary policy of the 80's, is not doing the same today. There is a concerted effort this time to devalue the USD and thereby all fiat currency.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

worldclass — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 11:46:22 -0000

Carioca,

"“There’s talk of inflation re-emerging and continuing weakness in the U.S. dollar, which suggest the gold price may well continue to climb higher,” said William Seddon, who helps manage about $300 million at White Funds Management in Sydney."

http://www.bloomberg.com/ap...

If you look at historical gold prices vs. historical home prices in Calgary, you'll see that roughly you can buy the same amount of gold today with the median price of a home. If anyone wants to make a chart that would be great to visualize this.

As for the 80's, gold and real estate diverged, but overall real estate eventually goes with gold. Gold is the ultimate standard of inflation... nevermind the doctored stats that our governments feed us monthly about "inflation numbers". All I know is that when I bought my home 15 years ago, I could buy certain ounces of gold. Today my home is worth, about the same ounces of gold. With gold poised to rocket higher to levels unbelievable, you can start to see that this is NOT the 80's and rates in Canada will NOT be 15%+ again.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

worldclass — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 11:41:08 -0000

Mike o rama, you are making the very same mistake that others made while the going was good. Google back in 2007 and you'll see all Economists saying that things were good and not to worry.

Don't believe the economists. Look ahead to the future, not what the current consensus is.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Totalmotorcycle — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 02:38:42 -0000

Sorry worldclass, I do not agree with you inregards to we are anywhere near an inflationary environment, just google it if you don't believe me and see what the vast majority of Canadian economists (BoC included) are saying. RE doesn't go up in an inflationary environment either because it also increases interest rates very fast. AUS just increased their prime rates BTW yesterday. There are bubbles in Gold and RE and the Stock market right now, you know it, I know it and the world knows it, we are all just waiting for them to pop.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

carioca Canuck — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 11:57:57 -0000

Here's the graph of 90 day past due mortgage defaults in Alberta.........note that this is based on the 8 chartered banks figures ONLY, a group of numbers that accounts for only some 60% of the total mortgages out there.

Extrapolate that out somewhat unscientifically and you get roughly 5,100 defaults based on 100% of the existing mortgages when you take into account The ATB, credit unions, private lenders, non-bank lenders, trust companies......etc.......

This is in our current interest rate environment. Now throw 35 and 40 year amortizations into the mix, zero and 5% down, FTB'ers who stretched too far, layoffs, EI running out, higher than normal GDSR/TDSR ratios, subprime credit worthiness (a huge one IMHO), CMHC, zero equity, VTB's along with rising rates...........

It is gonna be a buyer's market for decades at 50% off.......

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Carioca Canuck — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 11:50:13 -0000

Worldclass.......

Gold went up big time back in the early 80's as RE tanked.......the two opposites of what you are suggesting may happen. Can it be different this time ? I don't know. I am not a "gold bug" per say........it's been a several hundred years since it was exchanged as a currency.

While I believe that the US is done financially (as is Canada) but the world wil keep them on life support because it simply has no choice but to do so, RE will not be staging any great comeback here in Calgary to 2007 price levels. 10% of the roughly 20% drop in 2008 drop has been regained, but as sales are slowing again and prices have been skewed by a number of $1MM+ deals and cheap money, reality will step back in as layoffs mount, EI runs out and overall economic malaise continues to set in. The government can always start a tax credit program that has real teeth to help out, but who knows where that will go or even if it is the kind of thing they'd want to do ideologically. Rates rising will finish us off......simply because affordability is still out of wack. When, not if, US rates go up, our's do as well. If the Arabs and eastern bloc depeg oil from the USD expect that top happen soon and fast.

By my estimation and Mike Fotui's numbers, there are 5,100 mortgages that are 90 days or more in arrears in Alberta right now, and the trendline has shot up towards the moon since the summer of 2007 IN OUR CURRENT INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT. Imagine what will happen at 10% or more.........

What do you think about rates and the USD/oil situation ?

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

worldclass — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 11:09:18 -0000

All this chatter is just small noise compared to the macro-view of things that are coming. This is why homes in Calgary will now likely rise to levels that may rival 2007 prices:

http://www.marketwatch.com/...

You thought you didn't have inflationary pressures yet? It may come faster than we all think. Remember, tangible assets = good. Oil, property, gold, etc. Cash = bad, unless you are in a foreign currency that is LESS connected to the strength of the greenback.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Totalmotorcycle — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 08:58:33 -0000

This just in...

Canwest seeks creditor protection
Last Updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2009 | 8:48 AM ET
CBC News
Canwest Global Communications Inc. announced Tuesday that some of its business units will file for creditor protection.

The media conglomerate has come to an agreement with a committee representing its lenders over a restructuring plan for the debt-laden company.

Under the agreement, Global Television, MovieTime, DejaView, Fox Sports World and the company that operates the National Post newspaper are among the units that will voluntarily file for creditor protection under the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act.

The plan "represents the best alternative for the long-term interests of the [company], its approximately 1,700 employees, suppliers, customers and other stakeholders," Canwest said in a release.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Totalmotorcycle — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 03:30:51 -0000

Post removed by author

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Guest — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 00:34:35 -0000

Too late. He's already bankrupt. LOL

Now he can give advice to intellectually bankrupt people like you.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

realstinkyagent — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 22:11:03 -0000

CC: "Ooooooohhhhh..........I'm scared"

you should be scare CC, how do you think realtors make a living? by threatening, ruining families, spread rumors and lying to people.
you better watch your ass CC they are running out of victims to screw over, you will be next.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Guest — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 21:54:11 -0000

No but I know someone who is not very happy about getting royally screwed by you. You'd have your ass sued off if you weren't a bankrupt deadbeat.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

carioca canuck — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 19:41:43 -0000

The Kijiji thing worked perfectly for me.......plenty of comps in Mission, Connaught, Bridgeland, Vic Park, Cliff Bungalow, Lower Mount Royal.......etc......all $200-300 lower than my current rent was for identically sized and the same quality of places.

Once they know you understand the market they'll buckle under. If they don't anymore, HO in Toronto must have told them to stand pat and hope for the best. C got my reduction approved through the HO in Toronto. And I saw the rent roll for the building on her desk last weekend when I was in there so I knw what they are charging. Every place for blocks around us has FOR RENT signs out front.......EVERY PLACE. If they don't do it this time around, we're outta here if the comps support it. And they should.......as there's around 5,000 places for rent right now in town.

It costs about $300 to move......to save another $2,400 to $3,600 more per year in our bank account.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Plague — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 19:23:14 -0000

meant to add that when the 6month was up it is month to month.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Plague — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 19:22:01 -0000

Both of them were there. I only had a 6month lease when we moved in as I was expecting rent to drop, seems to have everywhere but here.

It makes zero sense they would let an existing paying tennant leave only to risk an empty apt for who knows how long and have to offer incentives and reduced rent. Seems like bad business especially for a pension plan owned complex who are looking for every penny of return they can get these days. Would like to get a hold of the District manager but do not see them listed on the web.

Will try the Kijiji route.

thanks

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

carioca canuck — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 16:45:53 -0000

Who did you talk to ? C or ML ?......printout and give her 25 comps that are identical to your place from Kijiji (there are 4,500 +/- places for rent) and ask her to fax them to Toronto for approval.

They may want you to sign a lease for 12 months.

When we moved here they said they didn't do month to month rentals.......that policy must have changed due to the increase in vacancies and people not wanting to commit when they saw rents falling.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Carioca canuck — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 16:41:40 -0000

Ooooooohhhhh..........I'm scared. Too bad Revenue Canada didn't take my payment settlement offer 11 years ago........

I don't see anyone threatening to sanction people who work in my previous occupation with million dollar fines. Do you ??

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Guest — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 16:34:58 -0000

"Realtors are scum."

Coming from a used-car salesman who was too irresponsible to pay his creditors. Carioca, aka Keith, did you know that bunkruptcy records are public domain?

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Plague — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 16:23:35 -0000

Thanks Carioca. I did go speak to them and mentioned a guy in my building has seen his rent go down etc, and they said "he's bullshi t t i ng you". Apparently I am currently month to month and I asked if they wanted me to leave, they said no. Then they said they only offer incentives to those not yet living here and if I was going to move they would offer reduced rent to someone new moving in....??????????????? I said that is backwards logic they said it comes from TO....lol...anyway...

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

carioca canuck — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 15:27:56 -0000

Print out 25 of some of the hundreds of comps from Kijiji and they will send them to Toronto to get you an answer........I am on the lower floors and have 2 bedrooms.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Plague — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 14:27:25 -0000

Carioca,
no response, no problem. Can you inform me if you are on the higher floors and in a 2 bed or 1?

I am going in to re-negotiate and would like some ammo....thnaks for help

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Carioca Canuck — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:59:27 -0000

The Australian consumer watchdog says real estate agencies involved in under-quoting and dummy bidding will be hit with fines of up to $1.1 million from January 1.

It is about time......isn't it ? Of course CREA and CREB will say that there is no need for such heavy handed enforcement as this practice does not happpen here.

So, if it does not happen here, the size of the potential fines, or even the fact that fines might exist, shouldn't matter now, should it........

Heh.

On another note.......as an inner city condo dweller I am noticing a pronounced increase of inner city listings, in particular where the condo fees are in excess of $300 a month.

Many of the cheaper listings of 2 bedroom apartment conversions for sale in in Connaught/Vic Park/Mission/etc have $390-500 monthly condo fees.......ouch.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Carioca Canuck — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:53:59 -0000

Mike O Rama......

I had to look three times at that listing. The city police know that Dover has a well documented crack problem. This just confirms it.

Here's my nomination for PRICE DROP of the week..........

Reduced to $229K from $269K so bring your offer as we're down by 15%......which by the way is in direct contradiction of the 6 recent articles in the Calgary Herald about how prices are sooooo strong right now.........I love how the realtot writes in the description "why rent so you can start building equity"........but wait a minute........the price has just dropped down by $40,000.........surely that's it, right ? I mean prices cannot possibly go down any further as I plan on building equity like your ad said....right ? Can you guarantee I will build equity at this new LOWER price ? Can you guarantee me that if I need to sell to get my equiity back you won't scalp me for 7/3% on the low ball offer you'll be urging me to accept ???

Realtors are scum.