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It is going to be a warmer than average winter, which means contnued pressure on natural gas inventories and prices.
Even long-term it will be difficult for AB to compete with the shale discoveries in the USA, which is driving natural gas prices down considerably. The easiest way to cut cost is to reduce wages so we will see some wage deflation in the industry.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099...
Only a few years ago they were talking about the US soon running out of Natural gas, that's what made Alberta so important from a supplier point of view. We are now much less important in the scheme of things. Even BC is now finding Huge amounts themselves.
Alberta's conventional Oil reserves are running low and the Tar Sands are not nearly as lucrative so the Natural Gas reserves were sort of the Golden Goose, or at least they used to be.
EnCana says B. C. shale among biggest discoveries
Too early to rule out the Alberta natural gas industry
While the downside risks facing Alberta’s natural gas industry are significant and growing, it remains far too early to throw in the towel. The momentum has recently been swinging towards jurisdictions that have established shale plays. Yet it is important to keep in mind that the shale gas industry remains in its infancy. Not only does its short history complicate the challenge of accurately estimating reserves, but further technological advances will be required to realize on much of shale’s potential. And then there are environmental concerns associated with shale gas that could be an impediment to investment, such as contamination of water.
http://www.td.com/economics/special/db0909_natg...
SFH
Aug: 1277
Sept (27th): 1126
Condos:
Aug: 632
Sept (27th): 508
I'll take a stab at it and say we get close but are under on both SFH and Condos. Which would make 4 months in a row of sales decline.
"Calgary Herald hits record readership"
This sounds a lot different from what you've been telling us.
Numerous times I have stated that their only remaining advertiser of note is the "REIC" (the Real Estate Industrial Complex.....which consists of builders, realtors, banks, mortgage brokers, home stagers, furniture stores and renovators, etc)........which is true. Any weekend page count will support that statement.
->
Well, in my case we have the National Weather Service saying that El Nino will be moderate to severe......and then you post the Commodity Weather Group saying it will be weak.
Hmmmm.........I better go and reread the latest report from Re/Max and CREA about how great our housing market is and will be forever until unicorns dance in fields of lilies spawning penguins dressed like pirates........looks like I may have been wrong along. Biased propoganda is the way to go.
This caution is justified, to a certain extent, given the financial shocks of recent years, economist Derek Holt said in releasing his analysis.
“Large cash holdings at a particular point in time may make sense if one is bearish, but sustained over a number of years it is difficult to justify,” he said.
Scotia Capital mined Statistics Canada's national balance sheet accounts for people and unincorporated businesses to come up with its estimate that Canadian households are sitting on a “massive treasure chest of between $635-billion and $1-trillion, depending on the definition of cash that is used.”
Since the beginning of the decade, Canadian savings patterns have become “disproportionately skewed towards chequing and savings accounts and money market mutual funds and all that liquid stuff,” Mr. Holt said in an interview.
“The main thrust isn't that households are saving too much – I don't think they are – but that they're saving too conservatively through cash and near-cash,” he said.
Translation - Canadians are not buying enough of Bay Streets paper crap anymore that has huge commissions and becomes partially or wholly worthless shortly thereafter........
LOL !!!! It sure didn’t take the G+M editor long to move the “$1 TRILLION in savings” story OFF the website as well. This has been the second or third article this week in the G+M's propoganda campaign about how we are too risk averse and hoarding cash.
It can still be accessed if you click on my link, but otherwise, it is gone. Seems like the truthful sentiments of 95% of the 210+ Canadians who posted comments there in the last 24 hours was too much for them to handle, as it hurt the feelings of their Bay Street masters.
Spend 15 minutes reading the comments....seems no one trusts Bay Street, Wall Street, the media, bankers, politicians, Mark Carney, et al, anymore.......
http://runningofthebulls.typepad.com/toros_runn...
I was shocked to see the graph showing how land prices climbed and crashed in a couple of years peaking in 2007and now back at mid 90's prices.
But this couldn't happen to urban properties...right??
"In Alberta, the nominal price of farmland rose by 7.9% compounded since 1995. Over the past two years, prices rose 28% in total, or 13.1% compounded."
How irresponsible people are varies across the provinces. apparently Alberta has a 14% savings rate while BCers spend more than they earn.
Natural gas will be 4.80 tomorrow."
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah, based on the new November contract which is anticipating the usual, seasonal return of cold weather. The stark reality is that there is so much over supply that there is no reason for prices to do much other than stay low with the usual ups and down ticks.
Definitely allot of reasons for prices to stay depressed. Much more due to the new massive discoveries than recession reasons in my opinion.
I hardly think it will get this low.
Natural gas prices in Canada could fall below $1, report warns Read more:
http://www.nymex.com/ng_fut_csf.aspx?product=NG
The bottom line is the stockpiles are getting so large, they are literally running out of places to store the gas. Sure prices can go up based purely on speculation and the belief of a future demand (hence futures) but the reality of that is just because prices go higher, your exports could drop significantly. If the price goes higher but you can only sell half of what you used to be able to sell, how much better off are you?
That's what the futures market see's and there is getting to be more and more evidence to verify that. The traders see the precipice coming and want in on the action. Yeee Haaa back to booms times here we come.
Deflation taking root in global economies
Hmmmmm......
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2009/0...
Think that had anything to do with them selling their mortgage bonds. Nah... probably not..
"He has since boosted the $177.5 billion Total Return Fund’s investment in government-related bonds to 44 percent of assets, the most since August 2004, from 25 percent in July, according data released earlier this month on Pimco’s Web site. The fund cut mortgage debt to 38 percent from 47 percent."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarch...
Heh.
Only if you're highly levered and live in a bubble.
->
Idiots....all of them.
Headlines like "consumer spending increased 1.3% in the month of August" are never placed next to ones saying "Income rose 0.2% in the month of August" because some of the bumbling fools will put 2 and 2 together and realize that all of the so-called 'stimulus' programs are designed to get Main Street to spend more money and take on more debt. Cash for Clunkers was the biggest factor in the rise in spending last mth, look for spending to dip now that the program has ceased.
I am surprised that Canadians are still spending like the economy is not in a powerful recession. This spending is quickly eroding any advantage we had with respect to personal debt levels compared to Americans. The level of debt-driven consumer activity in Canada has markedly been higher than America since the start of 2009. Instead of prudence, we are somehow in denial. This is not a good sign for the future because at some in the near future this behaviour will be exposed for irrational exhuberance. As Carioca stated, we are probably more in a M shaped recession where spring and summer 2009 may very well be the 2nd upward stem and we are facing a long decline. We simply cannot spend at this rate and not expect to get a backlash.
people need to see this movie to get mad and may be we can all do something about it, yes it almost impossible to win when you are up against the gov't, banks etc, but let's start from some where, like stop listen to the BS from the mainstream media and the real estate industry and don't let the banks imprison you for 35/40 years.
here's a good interview for starter
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/video/f...
More importantly, for the bond market, mortgage bond yields are dropping hard and fast, which should translate to lower rates if it continues. If this happens, it means that those who bought those overpriced tundra boxes in a frenzy in spring and summer 2009 may have blown their load prematurely. Given that the market had sucked in future buyers, we will be looking at a fairly slow RE market for the short and medium term and sellers will have to start becoming creative with price to encourage the few buyers left. A bigger concern is builders who simply cannot afford to build in a low demand environment or who must price houses reasonably well to encourage the few to buy from them.
$100,000 off this weekend.......
And undoubtably next weekend as well, and thereafter until enough fools get sucked in......I wonder what kind of glowing write up the property pimps Marty Hope and Mario Toneguzzi will give them in the Herald........heh.
Speaking of which, what happened to the supposed BC condo auction for properties in (IIRC) Invermere and/or the Okanagan that was widely reported on in the MSM ? Did it happen yet, did it flop, or what ?
Yet, hidden on page 5, paragraph 2 is this little goodie that you won't see any MSM news on.
Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For national CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus two-tenths of one percent of total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2009 total nonfarm employment of 824,000
824,000 unemployed that were previously (woopsy-daisy) missed!!!!
The stock market will keep ramping as long as mafia boys Ben and Obama keep throwing trillions at it. Extemely confusing for most folks who, despite working hard, at the end of every month are strapped and yet see the stock market and bankers record historic gains.
Then when it crumbles everyone will be "shocked" and "alarmed" at the "unexpected" turn of events.
->
The real problem here is that Main Street cannot recover because it is drowning in debt and Wall Street and Comrades Ben and Barack want it to take on more debt to bail out the irresponsible and the reckless. More and more fools are waking up to the realization that the real measure of any person's ability to take on more debt is their income and that if they lose their job or may lose their job or suffer cutbacks in hrs and pay rate they cannot afford more debt. Its sad that this realization is coming after they have taken on oversized mortgages for undersized cardboard boxes on a frozen tundra.
824,000 unemployed that were previously (woopsy-daisy) missed!!!!
No the number posted in the March 2009 release was 663,000. So if you subtract 824,000 - 663,000 = 161,000 missed. So they corrected the number by 161,000. That's a lot less than 824,000.
On page 4:
Moreover, market participants who were not economic adults during the anomalous high inflation years tend to conflate limited above-trend inflation of a percentage point or two with the threat of runaway double-digit inflation.We reiterate here that a number of factors which drove up inflation as the baby boomers reached maturity have disappeared or are no longer so influential. These include: the effects of a sharp bulge in population as the first baby boomers started earning, spending, and competing for consumer goods...enlargement of the workforce from increased participation of women (whether as two-income households or independently in new household formation) driving per capita earned income higher...the collective bargaining power of a unionized workforce being proportionately very much larger than that of today and negotiating contracts with automatic raises tied to the CPI...an employment culture of stable workforces and mutual loyalty between employees and employers that embedded annual cost of living increases and punished “job hopping”...a comparative absence of outsourcing...and finally, a far smaller and slower ability to ship manufacturing production and service abroad than exists today (at the minimum, think of current competition from overseas call centers run by banks and technology companies and electronic delivery of the output of knowledge workers of every sort.) The accelerators that once boosted feedback in vicious inflation cycles are not in place.
->
Boardwalk REIT does not aim to acquire rental apartments this year, preferring to continue its unit buyback program, its chief executive said.
The trust, Canada's largest rental apartment landlord, said the cost of purchasing property is still too high in many parts of the country.
"It's still cheaper to purchase units in our company than it is for us to purchase apartments in eastern Canada or even western Canada because property values on main street have actually been very surprising and have held better than what purchasers would like to pay," said CEO Sam Kolias.
Imagine that eh ?..........having personaly sold high end cars to Sam Kolias, his wife Melissa and his brother, I can vouch for their business acumen and ability to analyze the potential of probably any given deal. It is apparent that they do not see any value in real estate acquisitions at today's prices.
Do you think that they might know more than most real estate spinners out there that call themselves "professionals" ?
Tells me that those who are swallowing the low mortgage rates pill are exactly the buyers who are highly leveraged and who will struggle ordinarily in times of normal interest rates. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds. As I have stated ad nauseam, unless you have sufficient excess income to pay down your principal faster, buying in a low mortgage rate environment is not an advantage. Any security, advantage or protection that Albertans had with respect to the RE market has all but evaporated with the actions of the market in spring and summer 2009. These events are in my view the tipping point that will return to haunt the RE market in Alberta.
On a final note, wage deflation will continue in this province for some time because the biggest employers have discovered the power of the cheap foreign labour aka the foreign worker.
thank for the post, yes when a company like Boardwalk, who's business is to make money from rental said it's too expensive to buy in Alberta anyone with a brain would agree and understand why, but I'm sure the real estate industry and the banks would like to tell everyone that Boardwalk don't know what they're doing.
Plus there is not much for sale in Calgary or Edmonton that Boardwalk would be interested in.
http://www.icx.ca/map.aspx?&vs=VEMultiFamily&ar..., -114.06319476664102;curView:0;
http://www.icx.ca/map.aspx?&vs=VEMultiFamily&ar..., -113.49803924560548;curView:0;
Here is the latest COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL for edmonton.
http://www.colliersmn.com/prod/ccgrd.nsf/publis...
Price per unit is dropping but Boardwalk brass still think it's cheaper to buy their own units. They must really think unit prices are undervalued. Maybe it is. Better buy Boardwalk units and get the $0.15 monthly or 4.9% return (3.2% after tax) dividend.
I would suggest you spend less time on bubble blogs and more on how to read financial statements.
If for some deluded reason you are trying desperately to infer that real estate in Alberta is good value because of what they said, Ponoka has a bed for you.
Alberta is in Western Canada (Geography 101).....and there statement about not buying all year means not buying anywhere, period.
CC actually read their 2 quarter statements instead of cherry picking the MSM's you despise so much.
http://www.boardwalkreit.com/FinancialReports/
You reply to me was....
Alberta is in Western Canada (Geography 101).....and there statement about not buying all year means not buying anywhere, period.
When Realstinky writes the following
CC
Thank for the post, yes when a company like Boardwalk, who's business is to make money from rental said it's too expensive to buy in Alberta
I think that means he/she is specifically referencing specifically Alberta and not the rest of Canada. And I know the MSM article you posted refers to Canada as a whole, but you buddy Realsticky doesn't seem to be able to grasp that.
I sold my house for $455,000 in January on your advice that the market was going to crash. Your advice was wrong and prices have risen a lot since. Are you willing to compensate me for the $55,000 I've lost since then? I am a hard-working family man, just the kind of person you said you were willing to help. Are you accountable?
Why do you delete comments? Is it because you are ashamed? How do you feel about all the struggling families who you've caused to lose millions of dollars?
My advice to everyone reading here would be to NOT take Squidly's advice. Do the opposite.
and I'm glad squid deleted yours lame post, who want to read a post from a deceitful lying realtor/spec anyway.
If you wouldn't mind emailing me re: your rental rate I would appreciate it.
thanks
privateinvestorcalg@shaw.ca
if you don't mind.....thanks
no response, no problem. Can you inform me if you are on the higher floors and in a 2 bed or 1?
I am going in to re-negotiate and would like some ammo....thnaks for help
They may want you to sign a lease for 12 months.
When we moved here they said they didn't do month to month rentals.......that policy must have changed due to the increase in vacancies and people not wanting to commit when they saw rents falling.
It makes zero sense they would let an existing paying tennant leave only to risk an empty apt for who knows how long and have to offer incentives and reduced rent. Seems like bad business especially for a pension plan owned complex who are looking for every penny of return they can get these days. Would like to get a hold of the District manager but do not see them listed on the web.
Will try the Kijiji route.
thanks
Once they know you understand the market they'll buckle under. If they don't anymore, HO in Toronto must have told them to stand pat and hope for the best. C got my reduction approved through the HO in Toronto. And I saw the rent roll for the building on her desk last weekend when I was in there so I knw what they are charging. Every place for blocks around us has FOR RENT signs out front.......EVERY PLACE. If they don't do it this time around, we're outta here if the comps support it. And they should.......as there's around 5,000 places for rent right now in town.
It costs about $300 to move......to save another $2,400 to $3,600 more per year in our bank account.
$900k in West Dover.
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?prop...
Yes, West Dover has almost a million dollar house when the average house price is 205,000. (CREB, Sept 09 stats)
Amazing. I've book marked this property to watch the $350k drop in pricing.
Mike
Calgary RIP OFF!!!
My reply was directed at your comment.
Keep spinning for all you are worth.......I am sure that teaching realtot's how to lie about.....errrr......"counter" Boardwalk's statement about Canadian multi-unit RE being too expensive for them and that they are not buying, was "the" hot topic of every RE sales meeting this past 72 hours.
I had to look three times at that listing. The city police know that Dover has a well documented crack problem. This just confirms it.
Here's my nomination for PRICE DROP of the week..........
Reduced to $229K from $269K so bring your offer as we're down by 15%......which by the way is in direct contradiction of the 6 recent articles in the Calgary Herald about how prices are sooooo strong right now.........I love how the realtot writes in the description "why rent so you can start building equity"........but wait a minute........the price has just dropped down by $40,000.........surely that's it, right ? I mean prices cannot possibly go down any further as I plan on building equity like your ad said....right ? Can you guarantee I will build equity at this new LOWER price ? Can you guarantee me that if I need to sell to get my equiity back you won't scalp me for 7/3% on the low ball offer you'll be urging me to accept ???
Realtors are scum.
It is about time......isn't it ? Of course CREA and CREB will say that there is no need for such heavy handed enforcement as this practice does not happpen here.
So, if it does not happen here, the size of the potential fines, or even the fact that fines might exist, shouldn't matter now, should it........
Heh.
On another note.......as an inner city condo dweller I am noticing a pronounced increase of inner city listings, in particular where the condo fees are in excess of $300 a month.
Many of the cheaper listings of 2 bedroom apartment conversions for sale in in Connaught/Vic Park/Mission/etc have $390-500 monthly condo fees.......ouch.
Coming from a used-car salesman who was too irresponsible to pay his creditors. Carioca, aka Keith, did you know that bunkruptcy records are public domain?
I don't see anyone threatening to sanction people who work in my previous occupation with million dollar fines. Do you ??
you should be scare CC, how do you think realtors make a living? by threatening, ruining families, spread rumors and lying to people.
you better watch your ass CC they are running out of victims to screw over, you will be next.
Now he can give advice to intellectually bankrupt people like you.
Canwest seeks creditor protection
Last Updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2009 | 8:48 AM ET
CBC News
Canwest Global Communications Inc. announced Tuesday that some of its business units will file for creditor protection.
The media conglomerate has come to an agreement with a committee representing its lenders over a restructuring plan for the debt-laden company.
Under the agreement, Global Television, MovieTime, DejaView, Fox Sports World and the company that operates the National Post newspaper are among the units that will voluntarily file for creditor protection under the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act.
The plan "represents the best alternative for the long-term interests of the [company], its approximately 1,700 employees, suppliers, customers and other stakeholders," Canwest said in a release.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-hits-reco...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/potential-end-...
You thought you didn't have inflationary pressures yet? It may come faster than we all think. Remember, tangible assets = good. Oil, property, gold, etc. Cash = bad, unless you are in a foreign currency that is LESS connected to the strength of the greenback.
Don't believe the economists. Look ahead to the future, not what the current consensus is.
Gold went up big time back in the early 80's as RE tanked.......the two opposites of what you are suggesting may happen. Can it be different this time ? I don't know. I am not a "gold bug" per say........it's been a several hundred years since it was exchanged as a currency.
While I believe that the US is done financially (as is Canada) but the world wil keep them on life support because it simply has no choice but to do so, RE will not be staging any great comeback here in Calgary to 2007 price levels. 10% of the roughly 20% drop in 2008 drop has been regained, but as sales are slowing again and prices have been skewed by a number of $1MM+ deals and cheap money, reality will step back in as layoffs mount, EI runs out and overall economic malaise continues to set in. The government can always start a tax credit program that has real teeth to help out, but who knows where that will go or even if it is the kind of thing they'd want to do ideologically. Rates rising will finish us off......simply because affordability is still out of wack. When, not if, US rates go up, our's do as well. If the Arabs and eastern bloc depeg oil from the USD expect that top happen soon and fast.
By my estimation and Mike Fotui's numbers, there are 5,100 mortgages that are 90 days or more in arrears in Alberta right now, and the trendline has shot up towards the moon since the summer of 2007 IN OUR CURRENT INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT. Imagine what will happen at 10% or more.........
What do you think about rates and the USD/oil situation ?
Extrapolate that out somewhat unscientifically and you get roughly 5,100 defaults based on 100% of the existing mortgages when you take into account The ATB, credit unions, private lenders, non-bank lenders, trust companies......etc.......
This is in our current interest rate environment. Now throw 35 and 40 year amortizations into the mix, zero and 5% down, FTB'ers who stretched too far, layoffs, EI running out, higher than normal GDSR/TDSR ratios, subprime credit worthiness (a huge one IMHO), CMHC, zero equity, VTB's along with rising rates...........
It is gonna be a buyer's market for decades at 50% off.......
"“There’s talk of inflation re-emerging and continuing weakness in the U.S. dollar, which suggest the gold price may well continue to climb higher,” said William Seddon, who helps manage about $300 million at White Funds Management in Sydney."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116...
If you look at historical gold prices vs. historical home prices in Calgary, you'll see that roughly you can buy the same amount of gold today with the median price of a home. If anyone wants to make a chart that would be great to visualize this.
As for the 80's, gold and real estate diverged, but overall real estate eventually goes with gold. Gold is the ultimate standard of inflation... nevermind the doctored stats that our governments feed us monthly about "inflation numbers". All I know is that when I bought my home 15 years ago, I could buy certain ounces of gold. Today my home is worth, about the same ounces of gold. With gold poised to rocket higher to levels unbelievable, you can start to see that this is NOT the 80's and rates in Canada will NOT be 15%+ again.
I do not see rates being risen like crazy again this time around to protect the value of paper money. Volcker, who was an inflation hawk and largely responsible for the SOUND monetary policy of the 80's, is not doing the same today. There is a concerted effort this time to devalue the USD and thereby all fiat currency.
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5847#more
Only time will tell if any deliberate attempts unfold. Unintentional devaluation, such as caused by the current US financial collapse and our following along, will result in higher rates........which will drive gold way back down again.
IMHO gold is up, simply because of 1-a marginal level of panic mainly driven by those with vested interests (never seen so many "buy gold now" commercials on TV before) and 2-there have always been gold bugs since 1000 BC.
There is no demand for oil, but it is also up from it's mid $30's low due to simple speculation, nothing more.